The World Economy Redefined - War, Inflation and Markets in Upheaval Times are truly transformative with fundamental and major dislocations in politics, security, economics, businesses and capital markets. Sovereign Ukraine remains under unprovoked military attack and suffers horrendous atrocities and war crimes from revanchist Russia. A new world...
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Japan and Hong Kong. Two Asian countries with two very different economies, but one similarity that could spell trouble. Three years ago the HK protests focused our attention on the US dollar to HK dollar linked exchange rate. Back then, we speculated whether the relationship could...
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We live through truly transformative times with fundamental and major dislocations in politics, economics and capital markets. Independent and democratic Ukraine is under unprovoked military attack and suffering horrendous atrocities from totalitarian and revanchist Russia. This war, however, has global implications. Under attack are also...
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Stalemate Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February took the world by surprise, and has moved investors’ attention away from COVID to almost exclusively on geopolitics and inflation. As well as the enormous humanitarian impact and suffering caused, the war has created major global financial consequences for...
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Russia’s Putin launched an unprovoked military invasion into the Ukraine on February 24th 2022. Up to that point Putin had three strategic options to deal with the self-inflicted situation in the Ukraine: to de-escalate, to muddle-through or to attack. I had assigned a low probability to...
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The Russian President threatening the Ukraine, offers highly uncertain rewards yet a potentially lethal downside for him and his inner circle. Russia is getting ahead of itself apparently emboldened by the illegal and only modestly sanctioned seizure of Crimea. The blame, however, lies by no...
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