Geopolitics - Bipolarity Defining Our Age The defining geopolitical confrontation of our age is the strategic rivalry between the US and China. Geopolitics remain complex, ambiguous and to varying degrees confrontational, in a world characterized by the growing bipolarity between the global West led by the...
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The collapse of a major US bank doesn’t come as a surprise given the current macroeconomic backdrop with the recent strong and fast rise in interest rates. In this context, the failure and closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) will not be the last significant bank,...
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Transition to a New World Order 2023 has started with the US continuing leading a united Global West, China re-opening and focusing on economic growth, Russia digging in on its illegal military attack on Ukraine and Iran’s regime doubling down on domestic repression. Stay prepared for more...
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Japan and Hong Kong. Two Asian countries with two very different economies, but one similarity that could spell trouble. Three years ago the HK protests focused our attention on the US dollar to HK dollar linked exchange rate. Back then, we speculated whether the relationship could...
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Stalemate Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February took the world by surprise, and has moved investors’ attention away from COVID to almost exclusively on geopolitics and inflation. As well as the enormous humanitarian impact and suffering caused, the war has created major global financial consequences for...
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Introduction Traditional equity portfolios are a core part of what we do at KFP. They are often one of the largest components of a client’s portfolio. However, disciplined portfolio construction often gets overlooked in traditional wealth management. Clients are usually faced with several choices. Do they build...
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GLOBAL ECONOMY New Monetary tightening cycle at hand The Federal Reserve finally got off the fence and announced plans for a new monetary tightening cycle to start later this year with a phased reduction in its bond buying programme (tapering of QE) to be completed by mid...
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GLOBAL ECONOMY Taper whimper The much anticipated Fed speech at the Central Bankers’ annual convention in Jackson Hole (held remotely on Friday 27th August) provided little new insight into the Fed’s plans for monetary tightening. On the contrary, Powell confirmed that tapering of the QE would probably...
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GLOBAL ECONOMY The China Investment Conundrum As will be apparent to all readers, China has started to flex its political and economic muscles in a significant way over the past few years based on its perceived and real economic strength. As of December 2020, China’s GDP was calculated...
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GLOBAL ECONOMY Growth RATE slowdown ahead GDP growth numbers for the quarter just ended (Q2, 2021) are likely, once the data is released, to shoot the proverbial lights out across developed markets. Annualised growth for the US is expected to exceed 10%p.a. In the meantime, we can see real time...
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