Transition to a New World Order 2023 has started with the US continuing leading a united Global West, China re-opening and focusing on economic growth, Russia digging in on its illegal military attack on Ukraine and Iran’s regime doubling down on domestic repression. Stay prepared for more...
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2022 was a year of extraordinary surprises for politicians, businesses and investors resulting in a ground-breaking divide, with winners such as Joe Biden, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ursula von der Leyen, Jens Stoltenberg, Luis Inácio Lula da Silva and Mohammed bin Salman and on the losing side...
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Financial markets look ahead and discount future developments. Thus, equity markets reflect fears and worries well ahead of actual economic pains, recessionary troughs or corporate distress and defaults. Managing the Fear & Greed Cycle As we know, risk assets move in fear & greed cycles from fear,...
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Clash - Policies versus Markets We continue to live through unprecedented and complex geopolitics, painful inflation battles, economic adjustment and business contraction cycles and turbulent capital markets. Policymakers, business leaders and investors are facing tough challenges - emotionally, intellectually and financially. They have to navigate through transformative...
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Geopolitics - Complexities and Confrontations Geopolitical complexities increase and economic confrontations between the West and Russia and China keep escalating, yet no relief nor resolution is in sight any time soon. Sadly, many countries continue to prioritize nationalist politics over economic and business interests, leading to dire...
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Dear Friends, 2022 has seen dramatic changes of generational proportions including post pandemic effects, a war in Europe, sharply spiking inflation and major economic dislocations and capital market losses. For the time being we stick to our defensive investment stance, as initiated and published since December 2021....
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Chaotic Global Macro at Centre Stage The global macro situation remains complex and chaotic filled with conflicts, cross currents, vastly diverging and often opposing interests: Russia’s unlawful war on Ukraine China’s misguided COVID policy Global energy and food crisis Unprecedented sovereign debt levels Derailed inflation ratesFragmentation in financial marketsIncreasing financial stability...
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The combination of ongoing economic consequences of the pandemic not only followed, but was massively amplified by Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine, has led to a simultaneous global cyclical economic downturn. The underlying forces are dislocations as well as structural process adjustments in politics, security,...
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The World Economy Redefined - War, Inflation and Markets in Upheaval Times are truly transformative with fundamental and major dislocations in politics, security, economics, businesses and capital markets. Sovereign Ukraine remains under unprovoked military attack and suffers horrendous atrocities and war crimes from revanchist Russia. A new world...
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Japan and Hong Kong. Two Asian countries with two very different economies, but one similarity that could spell trouble. Three years ago the HK protests focused our attention on the US dollar to HK dollar linked exchange rate. Back then, we speculated whether the relationship could...
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